One Great Season
CINCINNATI -- Bearcat fans are understandably perplexed to see their favorite squad fall three spots in this week's BCS rankings.
I, too, was miffed that USC moved up two places after struggling at home to beat Oregon State, the same Beavers team that Cincinnati handled rather easily in Corvallis last month.
That logic is hardly the end-all, but certainly there must be something more practical within the BCS formula. Sure Louisville was far from a formidable foe Saturday, but Cincinnati's thorough dismantling of the Cards shouldn't drop UC from No. 5 to No. 8.
The BCS debate is one that will never end as long as the system avoids modification. But UC fans can do some California dreamin' to figure out how to get to Pasadena for the national championship game on Jan. 7. And with all due respect to the memory of the very unpredictable 2007 season, here is how the Bearcats' holiday travel plans will be determined:
Most obviously, Cincinnati needs to win its remaining five games. The Bearcats earned a win over a ranked USF team two weeks ago, and Big East foes Pittsburgh and West Virginia -- both still on UC's late-season docket -- have crept into the polls in recent weeks.
Cincinnati will likely be 8-0 when West Virginia, probably 8-1 then, visits Nippert Stadium for what will no doubt be an exciting night game on Friday, Nov. 13.
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UC then steps out of conference for a game against Illinois on Nov. 27, then should take an 11-0 mark into Pittsburgh for the season finale for both teams.
Between now and that game that will determine the outright winner of the Big East, Pittsburgh will have beaten ranked teams from Notre Dame and West Virginia, which means a Cincinnati win over a 10-1 Panthers squad on Dec. 5 should give the Bearcats a fair amount of BCS credit.
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Hopefully, outside of losing to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, West Virginia will win its other three games against South Florida, Louisville and Rutgers, giving the Mountaineers a 9-3 record.
Most think the Big East isn't strong enough to send even a 12-0 team to a national championship game. A one-loss team from Texas or USC or the SEC (Florida, Alabama or LSU) would likely have an edge over a perfect UC team. And three of those teams above haven't even lost yet.
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And then there's still the possibility that Iowa or Boise State or TCU will run the table and finish undefeated. Would any of those teams finish ahead of a perfect Cincinnati team?
Iowa won't because the Hawkeyes will lose at Ohio State on Nov. 14. Boise State will continue to win games, but the Broncos' BCS case will run out of gas because they don't play any strong competition the rest of the way. And TCU is the wild card here among these three. For Cincinnati to leap over the Horned Frogs, TCU will simply have to suffer an upset.
USC could be eliminated from the picture with a loss this week at Oregon. But that doesn't help UC's case all that much because such a result would thrust the Ducks, currently just two spots behind the Bearcats at No. 10, up the charts.
Texas won't lose at Oklahoma State this weekend, and will coast to the Big 12 Championship Game, where, um, Kansas State awaits? Consider Colt McCoy and the Longhorns 13-0 come nightfall on Dec. 5.
So if Texas has one spot locked up, how does UC get the other over three capable teams from the SEC?
Sorry gang, but it just won't happen. Florida and Alabama could run the table and meet in the SEC championship game. The winner is the obvious No. 1 and a clear favorite over Texas. If LSU wins at Alabama on Nov. 7, LSU and Florida will meet in a rematch and again, the winner advances to Pasadena.
I don't see Florida losing in the regular season, and whomever the Gators play in the national semifinal, er, the SEC Championship Game, their opponent will be playing for the same thing -- the right to play for all the marbles.
Of course there can be plenty of upsets over the next month or so, and that's why they play the games on the ledger, but considering the strength of schedule for the aforementioned SEC teams, a possibly perfect Texas team, a likely perfect TCU squad and a one-loss PAC 10 champion, there are too many teams in UC's way and only two spots available. I think the Bearcats will complete the perfect regular season, and will likely meet a tough-as-nails Alabama team in the Sugar Bowl.