Oregon is the only team that can derail the SEC's dominance in the national championship picture. Teams from the South have won the last four titles, and while some objective experts have opined this year the SEC is down a tad — by its standards, at least — Auburn and Alabama still seem like strong candidates to stretch the league's streak to five in a row.
I agree with many other experts who say that despite its imperfect record, Alabama is sitting quite pretty. I really think the Tide will slow down Cam Newton enough to beat Auburn when the Tigers visit Tuscaloosa for a post-Thanksgiving Day slugfest on Nov. 26.
The winner of that matchup should advance to the SEC championship game, handle an inferior foe from the East and then move on to the BCS championship tilt, presumably against Oregon.
Let's say Alabama does what many think it will do and wins out. Do you think Boise State, TCU or Utah could beat 'Bama? Could a Big 12 champ from Oklahoma or Nebraska, or a Big 10 winner from Wisconsin or Ohio State, topple the Tide?
I don't think so either.
Perhaps you've read some of my interviews with college football experts this season. I've asked most of them if they think this could be the year the SEC streak ends. Most of them have said yes. And in my Q&A with Sports Illustrated's Andy Staples, he described what separates the SEC from the top teams from other BCS conferences:
"The biggest difference is the speed of the linemen. If you put the fastest defensive backs and receivers and running backs from all the conferences together, they'll all be about the same. But when you put all the defensive tackles together, the SEC guys are always faster. The way they move from sideline to sideline just makes it so difficult for people to get to the edge against them."
But if there's only one team that could get to the edge against Alabama some, wouldn't it be Oregon? The Ducks have the most explosive offense in the country, and it's not exactly a three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust model. UO enjoys a rich track tradition, and its football teams the last two seasons under Chip Kelly boast wheels equally dangerous.
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As much as Oregon can race right past you, how many times have you seen LaMichael James on "SportsCenter" this season busting a long touchdown gallop right up the middle? That's another thing Staples made sure to mention, that Oregon isn't just a finesse and speed team. "They can also run it right down your throat," he said.
Last year, I correctly picked that Ohio State would shut Oregon down in the Rose Bowl. But this year's Ducks are far more dangerous — and are a much more complete team — and that's why I think they'll beat Alabama in the national championship game in two months.