By JOHN P. WISEOne Great Season
I gave up picking upsets for the most part a few years ago. That's why they're called upsets, because you can't predict them. Too many people think no one will notice if they hook up a Jay Bilas IV to one arm and a Doug Gottlieb IV to the other on Selection Sunday weekend, then stealing their insights and passing them off as their own knowledge when they turn their brackets into the moderating co-worker who knows they're full of shit.
That's not to say I only pick by chalk, but at the same time, there's a reason why one team is seeded first, another is seeded eighth and another is 15th. In most cases, such rankings signify the best, the second-best and the worst of those three teams. When the dust settles after the first weekend, sure you'll see some 12s and 10s and 9s, but you see more 1s and 2s and 3s. And that will again be the case this year.
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In fact, I'm convinced that there's a good chance that all four No. 1 seeds will make it out of their regions and play in the Final Four this year. Here's how:
EAST REGION
Despite earning the tournament's top overall seed, Ohio State will have played three very difficult games to get to the Final Four. I believe the Buckeyes will pull it off, but that second game against George Mason could get scary.
The Patriots play very much like Ohio State does in that they cherish the basketball. Each offensive possession is a high-value opportunity, so they don't force bad shots, nor do they turn the ball over. George Mason won't make another Final Four run — as if anyone saw its magical 2006 effort coming; oh wait, you did! — but it's plenty capable of pulling off the upset. In the end, however, better senior leadership and a notable home-court advantage in Cleveland will lift the Buckeyes.
Then it's on to Newark, where Ohio State will meet Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen. Many are high on the Wildcats, who are playing pretty good basketball right now. But remember, they're coached by John Calipari, who, unless the conversation is about recruiting, isn't necessarily one of the game's greats. If he couldn't steer last year's talented youngsters to the Final Four, he won't do it with the 2011 crop.
The regional final will be a pick-your-poison affair for the Buckeyes. Do they prefer a North Carolina team that manhandled Duke just nine days ago? Or a Syracuse squad whose fans likely would outnumber OSU's at the Prudential Center just across the river from Manhattan? Either way, the Buckeyes had better bring their top effort to the Garden State.
I think it will be North Carolina, whose interior beef could slow Jared Sullinger, but in such a case it wouldn't surprise me if senior Jon Diebler was the star of that game. Not only did he close the regular season on a three-point binge, but he's also shown a better-late-than-never habit of putting the ball on the deck and attacking the basket in recent weeks. It's been a nice little addition late in his career, and the new dimension makes an already versatile Ohio State seven-man rotation that much more multiple. The Buckeyes will advance to Houston.
SOUTHEAST REGION
Pittsburgh should come out of its sub-regional without incident. The Panthers lost their only game at the Big East Tournament, and typically have underachieved in the NCAA Tournament under Jamie Dixon. But despite being the last top seed, they somehow got the easiest path to the Final Four of all the No. 1 teams. Butler is cute, for sure, but Pitt will knock out the defending national runner-up in a Round-of-32 slugfest.
I still haven't put Pitt's Sweet Sixteen opponent in ink yet, but both BYU (Brandon Davies) and St. John's (D.J. Kennedy) are missing key players who would help keep the matchups honest. Because of their absences, however, Pitt should be able to bully its way past this round and into the Elite Eight, where a meeting with Michigan State — remember the Spartans? — awaits. Tom Izzo knows how to win some games this time of year, but the Spartans have become too reliant on Kalin Lucas, so their magic will end in New Orleans, giving Pittsburgh its first Final Four appearance in decades.
SOUTHWEST REGION
Sorry, Illinois fans, but you won't get a chance to upset old friend Bill Self and Kansas because old friend Lon Kruger and UNLV will sneak past you in your tournament opener.
That game will be among the top second-round matchups in this year's tournament, but Kruger's celebration will be a brief one. Kansas awaits two days later, and it's the Jayhawks who are the Final Four pick here. Marcus and Markieff Morris have been the talk of KU, but in other positions where the Jayhawks don't have stars, they have at least steady players who know their roles well and don't try to be rock stars. The Morrises average a combined 31 points and 15 rebounds between them, but if one brings an off night, a splendid gaggle of guards, led by Tyshawn Taylor, will keep opposing defenses honest with their work on the perimeter.
A Sweet Sixteen game against Louisville could be that round's most intriguing matchup. Each team goes 10 deep and can hurt you in a variety of ways. But the difference — surprise! — will be Kansas' superiority on the blocks.
Speaking of interior superiority, Notre Dame is lacking enough in that department that I think Purdue pulls an upset in the Sweet Sixteen and advances to the Elite Eight, where KU will have an easy time with the Boilermakers.
WEST REGION
Some think this bracket is the most difficult, but I don't buy that it's any harder than the East. Top-seeded Duke doesn't get the police escort it got to last year's Final Four.
But even though the challenge will be greater, don't think the Blue Devils aren't up to it. Sure they probably won't get Kyrie Irving back, but they have two senior stars in Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler who've played in dozens of big games and know well that it takes a lot more than scissors to cut down nets.
A third-round matchup against Tennessee will be a nice test, but Duke will advance to Anaheim in what shapes up to be an outstanding regional. Last year, the Pac-10 overachieved on the first weekend but couldn't come back with it at the regionals. I expect the same to happen here. If Texas avoids the early upset to Oakland, it won't against Arizona. The Wildcats move on to the regional, where Duke puts them away and advances to the Elite Eight.
If the opponent is Connecticut, that means the Huskies will have recovered from their five-in-five fatigue and beating them will be a tall order. But Smith's offensive production could equal Kemba Walker's, and UConn doesn't have a second offensive star who can take over a game the way Singler can. I give the slight edge here to Duke.
And if you're thinking San Diego State is here and that the Aztecs would have a huge home-court advantage, let me tell you one thing: unless it plays on its home floor, Duke usually has a decided home-court disadvantage. San Diego State would have the crowd's full support in Bozeman, Mont., because of the basketball culture's silly Duke-hate. The Blue Devils have won many games in hostile environments, and will do so en route to Houston.