Auburn-Oregon Preview: Stats, Trends & Other Notes

By JOHN P. WISE
One Great Season

When I was a kid, then-Cleveland Browns coach Sam Rutigliano used to cite a popular brand at the time to describe critical factors in playing winning football.

He said that if his team kept "STPs" to a minimum, then his Browns would be victorious. If Brian Sipe and the fellas allowed fewer sacks and committed fewer turnovers and penalties than the other team, the result often would be a positive one.

And in a game where two teams seem as evenly matched as Auburn and Oregon do, I can't help but think the team that values each possession more, that cherishes the football and doesn't stop itself by making mental mistakes will be the one hoisting that expensive crystal Coaches' Trophy at about midnight Eastern time tonight.

Momentum won't be as much of a factor as we think it might because we know both teams will score many points tonight. Just when it appears Auburn has the emotional edge, Oregon will assemble a six-play, 80-yard scoring drive to reclaim it in two minutes or less.

We also know that Auburn quarterback Cam Newton will have a big game. I don't think he's had a bad one this year, and he seems to play better when the lights are brightest. And Oregon's offense should have a huge outing as well. The Ducks might see some unfamiliar resistance to its high-powered running game, but that will just make them throw the ball around some, as the Tigers pass defense is its weak link.

Auburn certainly has faced more difficult tests than Oregon has, but SEC fans are incorrect when they think that ends the argument. Strength of schedule is nice and all, but it doesn't get you into the end zone. And we know that defense won't be what decides who wins tonight; here's what will:

Let's say each team gets the ball 12 times tonight. The team that makes the most out of those possessions, the team that doesn't turn the ball over, the team that scores touchdowns instead of field goals, will win. The team that, on the rare occasion it doesn't get into scoring position, punts well and covers even better, will win. The team that tackles well, especially in space considering the great athletes we'll see tonight who are capable of getting into the open field, will win.

We all know about Auburn's and Oregon's impressive national rankings in the more sexy offensive categories, but what about these more obscure figures?

Sacks
Auburn 2.54 per game, 20th in the country
Oregon 2.58, 18th

Sacks allowed
Auburn 1.62, 42nd
Oregon .67, 5th

Turnover Margin
Auburn +.38 per game, 32nd
Oregon +1.08 per game, 7th

Fewest penalties per game
Auburn 5.7 per game, 51st
Oregon 7.25, 102nd

3rd down conversion
Auburn 53.1, 3rd
Oregon 45.9, 25th

3rd down conversion defense
Auburn, 37.5, 40th
Oregon, 33.5, 9th

Red zone conversion percentage
Auburn .87, 25th (63 drives, 55 scores, 29 rush TD, 15 pass TD, 11 FG)
Oregon .84, 44th (63 drives, 53 scores, 30 rush TD, 12 pass TD, 11 FG)

Red zone conversion percentage defense
Auburn .88, 97th (40 drives, 35 scores, 15 rush TD, 10 pass TD, 10 FG)
Oregon .68, 6th (37 drives, 25 scores, 8 rush TD, 9 pass TD, 8 FG)

And here are some other noteworthy numbers:

+ Oregon has 44 touchdown drives of 2 minutes or less.
+ Auburn coach Gene Chizik is 7-0 in bowl games.
+ Oregon RB LaMichael James leads the country with 36 rushes of 20+ yards the last two seasons.
+ Oregon's offense is ranked first nationally in points per game, first in total yards and fourth in rushing yards.
+ Oregon's defense is ranked 12th in points allowed, 25th in total yards, 16th in rushing defense and 6th in passing efficiency defense.
+ Auburn's offense is ranked fourth in points per game, seventh in total yards and fifth in rushing yards.
+ Auburn's defense is ranked 54th in points allowed, 55th in total yards, 10th in rushing defense, 75th in passing efficiency defense.

Edge: Oregon