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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Forecast

Wednesday, March 23, 2011 at 12:50PM

By JOHN P. WISE
One Great Season

I can't remember a regional that lacked sex appeal the way the Southeast does, but that doesn't mean there aren't storylines aplenty.

Who will lead Florida over BYU? Walker, Boynton, Parsons, Macklin, Tyus? Or will Cougars' scoring machine Jimmer Fredette eliminate the Gators for the second straight year? I expect Billy Donovan's group to have an interesting game plan to stop — OK, slow — Fredette. Florida will have had five days to prep for the nation's most dangerous offensive threat. If Fredette gets 30, Florida doesn't deserve to win. But he won't. Gators advance.

Wisconsin is a neat subject to consider because it wasn't supposed to win a game in this tournament. No, it's not some cutesy little mid-major; it's the freaking Badgers for crissake. After being embarrassed in its final two games, U-Dub was picked by everyone and their bracket-winning brother to suffer the upset bug against Belmont. And after beating the Bruins, Wisconsin surely wasn't supposed to beat Jacob Pullen and Kansas State, was it?

But its next challenge is an interesting one because Butler wasn't supposed to be here either, right? Why we haven't learned is beyond me. Butler — BUTLER! — got to the championship game last year. Did you forget? Before Final Four weekend in the Bulldogs' hometown of Indianaplis last year, did you even know who Brad Stevens was? Do you now?

Clearly I haven't learned anything; I'm picking Wisconsin.

And Florida's athleticism will be too much for the Badgers on Saturday, but Bo Ryan and his squad will be able to look back on an Elite Eight season and be fairly proud, especially after the way it embarrassed itself just before the NCAA Tournament. Gators return to the Final Four.

East Region

When the tournament field was unveiled, Ohio State, the tournament's top overall seed, got stuck with North Carolina, Syracuse and Kentucky. The Orange got squeezed by Marquette, but the Buckeyes will still have to get through Kentucky and North Carolina.

OSU fans are known as travelers, but more for football than basketball. When it comes to hoops, does anyone travel like Kentucky? Big Blue Nation will get to Newark and outscream their scarlet-and-gray-sweatered counterparts on Friday, but the Buckeyes' experience and maturity might be the difference in a tight game between teams of close-to-equal talent.

North Carolina, like Kentucky, is playing good basketball these days and athough the Heels got a scare against Washington in the third round on Sunday, appears the clear favorite against Marquette. I doubt UNC is trying to avenge the school's 1977 title-game loss to the Warriors, er, Golden Eagles, but when teams have equal rest and the same amount of days to strategize, I think I like Roy over Buzz in the War of the Williamses.

It would seem likely for Ohio State and North Carolina to stage a classic in Sunday's regional final. The Buckeyes are on a mission and showed on the first weekend they're serious about fulfiling it. OSU slaughtered Texas-San Antonio and George Mason, but the competition gets markedly more difficult this weekend. After a confidence-inspiring win over a talented Kentucky team, I think Thad Matta's men carry the momentum into the Elite Eight and play sound, focused basketball. If Jon Diebler's three isn't falling, William Buford's will. If his isn't, then David Lighty's will be. Other than freshman block bully Jared Sullinger, the Bucks don't have stars, but they also have a multitude of weapons and no weak links. Much has been made about Kendall Marshall as UNC's emerging young point guard, but he can turn the ball over some and it wouldn't surprise me to see Ohio State try to exploit that. Buckeyes advance.

West Region

Regardless of how many Duke fans travel to see their beloved Blue Devils in the NCAA Tournament every year, the only home-court advantage they enjoy is at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Everywhere else they go, particularly in March, they are hated. In fact, if Cameron hosted post-season games and participating schools were given equal ticket allotments, the Dukies would be at a disadvantage in their own barn because in college hoops, there are two types of fans: 1) Duke fans and 2) everyone else.

That said, do you think this team is going to be rattled by a few Arizona fans who support a star in Derrick Williams who doesn't appear very comfortable playing in the NCAA Tournament? Do you think seasoned senior stars Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler, owners of 2010 NCAA championship rings, will crack under pressure? Coach K is the best coach in the game and his long list of post-season accomplishments speaks for itself. No team's uniforms speak as loudly as the ones that say D-U-K-E across the front, and if there's anyone who will crack under pressure, it's a Pac-10 team from Tucson.

Is San Diego State for reals? Are the Aztecs just a team that had the stars align for one splendid season, and they'll go back to being, well, San Digo State next yaer? Or is Steve Fisher making a serious run at a return to the Final Four? I said even before the bracket was announced that if Connecticut can survive the first weekend, the Huskies will be scary on the second weekend. Kemba Walker and Co. proved in their first two games that their legs are just fine after the five-in-five miracle two weeks ago. Now rested, I expect UConn to blow out San Diego State on Thursday night. Yeah, I said it.

Duke-UConn in the regional final on Saturday. I like the sound of that. Walker's supporting crew is on the rise, but still perhaps a little young for lights this bright. Duke marches on.

Southwest Region

For as long as I was saying Ohio State was the best team in the country, I thought at the same time that Kansas was the most complete team in the country. OSU actually grabbed that coveted OGS title after its two-day clinic in Cleveland last week, but the Jayhawks are still complete. Neither Marcus nor Markieff Morris is as good individually as Jared Sullinger, and that would be a problem for KU if there was only one of those dudes. But there are two of them.

And that is why No. 1 seed Kansas is the easy pick to cruise through a region whose remaining teams are the 10th, 11th and 12th seeds. Not much analysis needed here. Jayhawks pee in the slippers of Richmond on Friday and Florida State on Sunday. And of course they'll tell you they won't cut down the nets in San Antonio because they've got other nets they'd rather cut down a week later. How cute.

John P. Wise |

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October 7, 2011 |

monian

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