UC Comes Close, But 12-0 Won't Be Enough
Monday, October 26, 2009 at 9:49AM One Great Season
CINCINNATI -- Bearcat fans are understandably perplexed to see their favorite squad fall three spots in this week's BCS rankings.
I, too, was miffed that USC moved up two places after struggling at home to beat Oregon State, the same Beavers team that Cincinnati handled rather easily in Corvallis last month.
That logic is hardly the end-all, but certainly there must be something more practical within the BCS formula. Sure Louisville was far from a formidable foe Saturday, but Cincinnati's thorough dismantling of the Cards shouldn't drop UC from No. 5 to No. 8.
The BCS debate is one that will never end as long as the system avoids modification. But UC fans can do some California dreamin' to figure out how to get to Pasadena for the national championship game on Jan. 7. And with all due respect to the memory of the very unpredictable 2007 season, here is how the Bearcats' holiday travel plans will be determined:
Most obviously, Cincinnati needs to win its remaining five games. The Bearcats earned a win over a ranked USF team two weeks ago, and Big East foes Pittsburgh and West Virginia -- both still on UC's late-season docket -- have crept into the polls in recent weeks.
Cincinnati will likely be 8-0 when West Virginia, probably 8-1 then, visits Nippert Stadium for what will no doubt be an exciting night game on Friday, Nov. 13.
GAMEDAY GALLERY: Louisville at Cincinnati
UC then steps out of conference for a game against Illinois on Nov. 27, then should take an 11-0 mark into Pittsburgh for the season finale for both teams.
Between now and that game that will determine the outright winner of the Big East, Pittsburgh will have beaten ranked teams from Notre Dame and West Virginia, which means a Cincinnati win over a 10-1 Panthers squad on Dec. 5 should give the Bearcats a fair amount of BCS credit.
YOUR THOUGHTS: Will 12-0 Be Good Enough For UC?
Hopefully, outside of losing to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, West Virginia will win its other three games against South Florida, Louisville and Rutgers, giving the Mountaineers a 9-3 record.
Most think the Big East isn't strong enough to send even a 12-0 team to a national championship game. A one-loss team from Texas or USC or the SEC (Florida, Alabama or LSU) would likely have an edge over a perfect UC team. And three of those teams above haven't even lost yet.
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And then there's still the possibility that Iowa or Boise State or TCU will run the table and finish undefeated. Would any of those teams finish ahead of a perfect Cincinnati team?
Iowa won't because the Hawkeyes will lose at Ohio State on Nov. 14. Boise State will continue to win games, but the Broncos' BCS case will run out of gas because they don't play any strong competition the rest of the way. And TCU is the wild card here among these three. For Cincinnati to leap over the Horned Frogs, TCU will simply have to suffer an upset.
USC could be eliminated from the picture with a loss this week at Oregon. But that doesn't help UC's case all that much because such a result would thrust the Ducks, currently just two spots behind the Bearcats at No. 10, up the charts.
Texas won't lose at Oklahoma State this weekend, and will coast to the Big 12 Championship Game, where, um, Kansas State awaits? Consider Colt McCoy and the Longhorns 13-0 come nightfall on Dec. 5.
So if Texas has one spot locked up, how does UC get the other over three capable teams from the SEC?
Sorry gang, but it just won't happen. Florida and Alabama could run the table and meet in the SEC championship game. The winner is the obvious No. 1 and a clear favorite over Texas. If LSU wins at Alabama on Nov. 7, LSU and Florida will meet in a rematch and again, the winner advances to Pasadena.
I don't see Florida losing in the regular season, and whomever the Gators play in the national semifinal, er, the SEC Championship Game, their opponent will be playing for the same thing -- the right to play for all the marbles.
Of course there can be plenty of upsets over the next month or so, and that's why they play the games on the ledger, but considering the strength of schedule for the aforementioned SEC teams, a possibly perfect Texas team, a likely perfect TCU squad and a one-loss PAC 10 champion, there are too many teams in UC's way and only two spots available. I think the Bearcats will complete the perfect regular season, and will likely meet a tough-as-nails Alabama team in the Sugar Bowl.
Reader Comments (8)
As a Cincinnati fan I hate every point you made, and therefore I hate you sir... ; )
But I can find no logical way do disagree, unfortunately. This really just highlights the need for a playoff system. Just give me all of the conference winners and a couple at large bids and let's play some ball, dammit!
That's why I'm rooting for Cincy and Boise State for the National Championship. If that matchup doesn't result in a playoff system next year, nothing will.
Brush up on the selection order as the Sugar Bowl is the most likely destination for the Bearcats as an at-large BCS team. The BIG EAST has no natural tie in and they will not go back to the same bowl they went to last year. Look for UC vs SEC Runner-up in NOLA...
UC doesn't deserve to play in the National Championship anyway. They play in the worst BCS conference which is also worse than the Mountain West, and top that with the fact that the best out of conference game they have is at Oregon State, which will have 4 or 5 losses.
UC is a national title game is a joke.
How about a dose of reality with that ignorant post Kenny?
Sagrin Ranks the Conferences
2008- 5th, Ahead of the Big 10/11 and the MWC
2007- 4th, Ahead of the ACC, Big 10/11 and the MWC
2006- 2nd, Ahead of the PAC-10, ACC, Big 10, Big 12 and the MWC
2005- 6th, Among Conferences ahead of the MWC
From- www.usatoday.com
BCS Ranks the Conferences
2008- 3rd, Ahead of the PAC 10, Big 10, the SEC and the MWC
2007- 4th, Ahead of the Big 12, Big 10 and the MWC
2006- 3rd, Ahead of the Big 10/11, ACC, Big 12 and the MWC
2005- 6th, Ahead of the MWC
From- www.collegebcs.com
If you look at the Big East vs. the rest of the BCS we have had an overall winning records for the last three years.
In fact we have the best Non-Conference record of ANY league against other BCS Conference foes.
2008- 9-7
2007- 7-8
2006- 11-7
Big East Total- 27-22 .551
Same Time ('06, '07, '08) period other BCS Conference records vs. other BCS & Notre Dame.
ACC- .492
Big 12- .405
Big 10- .550
Notre Dame- .483
Pac-10- .500
SEC- .500
It's a damm outrage!!!
Iowa No.4 while UC is No.8.
Give me a freakin break!!!
UC stomped a mudhole in Louisville 41-10.
While
Iowa just barely skimed past Michigan State(Who btw lost to Central Michigan) 15-13
While UC went out to Corvalis Oregon(At Resler Stadium) beat Oregon State 28-18.
Who btw lost to USC 36-42
Iowa,on the other hand needed a last second field goal to take care of Northern Iowa(1-AA school at that).
And
Barely got past Arkansas State who is a terrible school.
But
They moved Iowa to No.4 while Uc gets let down to No.8.
This really reeks and stinks up to high heaven
Correction Kenny, The Big East is better this year than the Big 10, Pac-10, and the ACC. And for the record, Florida at #1 is ridiculous.
Any National Championship game is a joke without a playoff. However, if the NCAA is going to pretend that all of the FBS teams are in the same league, than if a team like Troy goes 13-0, in my mind they deserve to play for the National Championship. Would they be one of the top 2 teams in the country? Probably not, but if winning all of your games in the highest division doesn't grant you a chance to play for the championship, than you aren't really in the highest division.
Now if a team in a BCS conference can go undefeated and be left out, it is an even bigger farce than my half-joking Troy example. Would an undefeated Cincy be one of the best 2 teams in the country? I don't know (And, by the way, neither does anyone else). Would they deserve a shot at the title? Absolutely.
I agree that the Bearcats should not have dropped that way. What a scam the BCS is anyway! But u guys are making a big mistake by underestimating West Virginia. If they can play mistake free they are the better football team. They have more talent so don't count your eggs before they hatch gentlemen!
I am not worried about TCU, Boise State, Iowa, or USC. After UC beats ranked WVU and Pitt, UC will catapult over TCU, Boiise St, and USC. Iowa will lose at Ohio State. Texas will lose one game before bowl time and so will either Florida or Alabama. UC is headed for Pasadena. Call your travel agent.